One thing I don’t see discussed enough is how rebuilds aren’t linear. This is unfortunate as seemingly many think that stepbacks in certain areas aren’t ever supposed to happen, things are only ever to improve when rebuilding. This just isn’t the case. Even if people don’t think that consciously, then it’s thought subconsciously. I even fall into that trap sometimes when I get frustrated with certain aspects of my two NHL teams that have regressed (both of whom are rebuilding). So, today, let’s discuss how the Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings, New Jersey Devils, and Ottawa Senators all illustrate how non-linear rebuilds are.
This year the Sabres and Devils were supposed to be playoff teams, and the Senators were assumed to be either a playoff team or the last team out. The Red Wings were supposed to be better, but still not a legitimate playoff contender, and the Blue Jackets were supposed to be bad. That’s what the media thought going into this season. What happened in reality is that both the Blue Jackets and Senators are bad, the Sabres and Devils will miss the playoffs, and the Red Wings are legitimate playoff contenders. How did this happen? I’ve already touched a bit on how this happened in my New Year check-in, but I want to not only re-iterate but dive a bit deeper to illustrate how truly non-linear rebuilds are.
One thing I find interesting is that we accept, begrudgingly, the non-linearity of top teams. Players, including better players, leave all the time, often for salary or salary cap reasons, rentals, etc. It’s a given that none of the top team's rosters will ever be all that stable, that maybe one year they’ll have a weakness at goaltending and the next at the center position. The excitement is watching General Managers solve the puzzle, and figure out how to keep their team on top despite mounting challenges. But with rebuilds, it seems as if people just want every aspect of the team to consistently be getting better, all the time. Any step back is met with anger and calling for heads to roll. For example, my favorite team is the Detroit Red Wings. This year the team took a step back and is not as defensively solid as they were last year, but the fans blame this on the blue line. One thing I find interesting about hockey fans is how often defensive play from forwards gets overlooked unless they’re Fedorov, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Bergeron, O’Reilly, Toews, or Kopitar. Any defensive breakdowns must be because of the two defenders, not because of the forward group. Recently Corey Sznajder on his Substack “All Three Zones” wrote an article titled “Skating uphill with Moritz Seider”. One thing that is brought up in that article, the article from The Athletic that’s linked in the Corey article, and plenty of others on social media is that Detroit’s forward group has defensive issues. Even the forwards who were brought in to be more defensively reliable, like Andrew Copp, have had embarrassing defensive breakdowns this season. Anyway, last year, the team may not have been the most defensively talented, but the defensive foundations were solid. The forwards played defense, and so did the defense. Defensive fundamentals were there last season, even if the players weren’t talented enough to make the needed plays. You could see the effort being made. This season, the talent is there, but the fundamentals are not. It often feels as if the coaching staff is forced to throw a Hail Seider in hopes he can clean up the mess. That said, I do expect this problem to work itself out over time. I’m sure the coaches will and are working with the players to be more defensively responsible. But that’s not the only way things will get better: the prospect pool is loaded with defensive talent. Both on the blue line and forward group. Simon Edvinsson has likely solidified a spot on the Red Wings lineup at this point, but Albert Johansson should fight for a spot next season. In a few years I’d expect to see William Wallinder fight for a spot as well, and after him Axel Sandin Pellikka and Andrew Gibson. But those are just defenders, the forward prospect group, for as much offensive talent they may lack, they make up for in defensive talent. The Red Wings top forward prospect, Nate Danielson, may never be a top-end offensive talent, but he should be a top-end defensive talent. Their second-best forward prospect, Marco Kasper, is also not the most offensively gifted but is strong defensively. Even their third-best forward prospect, Carter Mazur, is solid defensively. Better defense is coming, even if a step was taken back this year. Even on the actual Red Wings roster, Lucas Raymond, the forward this team is being built around, has taken steps to become more defensively responsible, which is huge for this team. Lately, he’s even had shifts on the penalty kill. If this team wants to have success in the future, having your top young talent be defensively responsible is a key to that.
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