NHL 2023-24 Season Predictions
Folks, we have done it: we have made it to the NHL season. Congratulations. The most wonderful time of the year is upon us (sorry, Christmas) and every hockey fan's mood is lifted, at least until they actually see their teams play. Then comes the pain. But hey, we'll take the joy while we can get it. So, this is the first annual NHL predictions here on Vibes Based Hockey. In years past, I merely made predictions on Twitter (and I will expose myself for how bad my predictions were last year), but now, they will be here. So, let's dive in and see how wrong I will be about the NHL this upcoming season.
Alright, so we’ll start with my predictions on where each team will rank in division and then go to other predictions. Let’s start with my Atlantic Division ranking predictions:
Toronto Maple Leafs
Tampa Bay Lightning
Buffalo Sabres
Florida Panthers
Boston Bruins
Detroit Red Wings
Ottawa Senators
Montreal Canadiens
The first two were easy: the Maple Leafs and Lightning are still better than the other teams in the division. It was 3-7 that gave me trouble because honestly, you could tell me that any of those teams end at any of those rankings, and I’d believe you. The Sabres have an elite offense, and one that will only get better with Benson, but are they good defensively? Hell no. But, we’ve seen regularly that scoring a ton of goals, even if you don’t play defense well, does lead to regular season success. Post-season success, not so much, but it does work great in the regular season. The Panthers added some solid players in free agency, and if Samoskevich forces his way onto the roster this year, he’ll be a massive addition to the middle six. The only thing I don’t trust is their goaltending. Bobrovsky was on a heater in the post-season, and I expect to see him regress to where he was previously. Then we get to the Bruins, who, by necessity, will regress a LOT, and that’s without the losses of Bergeron and Krecji. Now, you add those two to the reasons they’ll regress, and I think they’ll be a middle-of-the-pack team. They’ll be good, but not great, at everything. Ottawa and Detroit, I was torn on. I don’t think the Senators improved their roster in the off-season, their bottom six is still terrible, and will be only worse if they can’t sign Pinto. While their top-end talent is great, I’m not convinced it’s enough to drag their bottom of the lineup players to the playoffs. Detroit, on the other hand, improved at every position, and it’s expected to see young players like Seider and Raymond break out this season after sophomore slumps. They have a top-line that will hold its own against any other top line, a questionable second line, and one of the best bottom six lineups in the league. Either way, I think Detroit and Ottawa will be within a point or two of each other in the standings. I just like Detroit’s additions more than I like what Ottawa did. Tarasenko is just a DeBrincat replacement, Kubalik is a decent bottom-six player, but nothing more, and Korpisalo was the Blue Jacket’s backup goaltender. Maybe Korpi is capable of repeating his performance last season, but as a Blue Jackets fan, I’d be surprised. I don’t really see the Senators of having improved much, and any movement up the standings will be on the shoulders of Stutzle and Tkachuk. I want to make it clear: I do think the Senators will end up with more points than last season, I’m just not convinced it’ll be much. For me, it’s relies on Korpi. If he can repeat what he did last year, Senators should be in the playoffs, but if he doesn’t (which is what I expect), they’ll be falling short, again. But, let’s be clear: the Atlantic will be a complete bloodbath and every team, but Montreal, has a genuine shot at the playoffs. God have mercy on these teams.
Now, let’s rank and discuss the Central:
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars
Minnesota Wild
Winnipeg Jets
Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues
Arizona Coyotes
Chicago Blackhawks
This was a pretty easy one to rank. I think Colorado is still the best team in the division, even with injuries and losses, but it’ll be a close race with Dallas close on their heels. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Dallas wins the division, but I do think Colorado is still slightly better. Minnesota is a good team. That’s about it. They’ll be good enough to make it into the playoffs, but not good enough to make any noise. Winnipeg is a team that could be good enough to make the playoffs, they still have a lot of their star talent, but let’s be honest: they’re mediocre. They’ll be dragged by Connor, Hellebuyck, and Morrissey into the playoff discussion and do little more than that. Nashville was a highly mediocre team last year, and they added solid talent this off-season, and when you add to the players in their prospect pool, they’re going to be dangerous again, and soon. But, alas, that is today. I think they’re doomed to at least one more year of mediocrity before they start putting the league on notice. But, who knows? If some of their top prospects make their way onto the team, and are genuine contributors to success, maybe this team makes the playoffs. But, you shouldn’t count on that happening. Then we get to St. Louis and Arizona, two teams who have improved. I think Arizona will surprise people this year, they already have solid depth, and a few top-of-the-lineup players, but the additions of Cooley will make them fun to watch and a more competitive team. St. Louis has a solid prospect pool, and some good youngsters on the team. The only thing that holds them back in my view is defense. That blue line is terrible, and I don’t see anyone in the prospect pool who is going to help improve it. Then, there’s who’s in net: Binnington. Need I say more? Finally: Chicago. Yeah, you got Bedard, but have you seen the rest of the roster and their prospect pool? Yikes. Oh, well. Having Bedard and Celebrini on the roster next year will soothe away the pains of this year.
Alright, let’s move over to the Metropolitan division:
Carolina Hurricanes
New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
Columbus Blue Jackets
Philadelphia Flyers
This will be an interesting division to watch, which should be no surprise considering how brutal the Eastern Conference is primed to be, again. But, I think the Hurricanes will emerge from the madness as not only the best team of the Metropolitan, but of the entire league. They were already one of the best teams in the league last season, and they only got better in the off-season. Unless they get the injury bug, I have them winning the President's Trophy. Behind them in the division is the Devils. Yes, they got better in the off-season as well, but they have two problems holding them back: they don't play defense and their goaltending is the biggest "yikes" of any team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations. I think their defense will keep them from taking the top of the division. I have the two New York teams just behind the Devils, the Rangers as #3 because I trust in Fox, Panarin, Shesterkin, and Zibanejad enough. For the Islanders: well, I think they're a solid enough team to get the #4 spot. They didn't really do anything in the off-season, and we're basically looking at the same team as last year. They will be dragged into relevancy by Sorokin. Now, I know it's likely controversial that I have them over the Penguins, but I don't trust Pittsburgh's defense and goaltending one bit. I expect Karlsson to regress, at least some, and Crosby and Malkin will continue, even in old age (in NHL terms) to drag the team to relevancy because they're still two of the best players on the planet, somehow. I think Washington will be better than last season, but still miss the playoffs, while the Blue Jackets will be better solely because they won't be chasing records for amount of players on IR. But, the Jackets still might be the worst defensive team in the league, and that will drag them down. And finally, for Philadelphia, do I really need to explain?
And finally, let’s discuss the Pacific division:
Vegas Golden Knights
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
Calgary Flames
Seattle Kraken
Vancouver Canucks
Anaheim Ducks
San Jose Sharks
This was easily the easiest division to figure out. Vegas is still king, (sorry LA) and Edmonton will still be second-fiddle thanks to McDavid and Draisaitl being good enough to drag what's technically an NHL roster to relevancy. Los Angeles has improved in the off-season, and have a potential star in Brandt Clarke forcing his way onto the opening night roster. They'll be good, but I'm not convinced good enough to be serious threats for Lord Stanley or for a top-two spot in the division. I think Calgary will leap-frog Seattle because, well, Seattle's scoring percentages were unsustainably high last season, so I expect some regression, especially considering who's in net for them. Vancouver is a wreck that will be dragged to at least being a competitive team by Hughes and Pettersson. Anaheim will be a better team this year, but, they're still at least one season away from being a competitive field. Finally, San Jose sits at the bottom of the Pacific division, Western conference, and NHL.
Now, let’s jump to do some random predictions. Last year, on Twitter, I had stellar predictions such as that the Boston Bruins would be so bad they’d be selling at the deadline, or that the New York Rangers would win the Stanley Cup. I also thought the Philadelphia Flyers were dark horse candidates to push for a wild card spot. Then, in my playoff bracket when we knew who was in the playoffs, I predicted the Islanders to win the Cup. So, as you can tell, I am great at this. Now, with my stellar track record in mind, let’s make some predictions for this upcoming season that will no doubt age horribly:
The Carolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup (defeating the Golden Knights in the Final).
Connor Bedard only gets 45 points this season. He’s an undersized winger coming onto a team that will provide him zero help. He’s not going to be that great off the bat.
The Calder Trophy race will be between Logan Cooley of the Coyotes and Adam Fantilli of the Blue Jackets.
The Philadelphia Flyers will win the Eiserman sweepstakes in the draft lottery, with the Blackhawks getting the second pick, and the Sharks getting the third pick.
The Capitals make a serious push for the playoffs.
Anyway, that’s it for my predictions for the NHL in general. I will have out articles specifically for the Red Wings and Blue Jackets (if you would like to receive team specific articles, read this article). Thank you all for reading my soon-to-be wrong predictions, and let’s have a fun NHL season. It’s finally here.
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