The Four Paths the Detroit Red Wings Can Take From Here
Yes, I know I said I was done writing about this team. Unfortunately for me, the Detroit Red Wings have hit rock bottom, therefore I feel obligated to share my thoughts. Now, as I see it, there are four paths this team can go down:
Fire Lalonde and try to salvage the season.
Go for a soft rebuild.
Go for an aggressive rebuild.
Start the rebuild all over again.
Path #1: Try to Salvage the Season
This is the path I advocated for last week. Honestly, I’m not sure this is the direction to go anymore after the last few games. But first, allow me to explain the positives of this route: this is year four of Seider and Raymond. Edvinsson, Johansson, and Kasper are now also up in Detroit. In other words, the future is beginning now. I don’t see any benefit of continuing to not give Seider and Raymond playoff experience. If not this year, when? It’s important to build a winning mentality and help the kids learn to win. This would be four years of losing for Seider and Raymond if the playoffs are missed again. That’s a huge downside that people are not discussing in all this. You want the kids to get as much experience as possible now in the playoffs. That said, there are also downsides to trying to salvage the season. One of them is: the roster sucks. This roster is fundamentally flawed. I’m just going to let Max Bultman in his most recent article in The Athletic say this for me:
Detroit has a top six that skews small and defensively limited, and a bottom six that struggles to produce. And frankly, the top six isn’t producing enough at five-on-five either. It has a top defense pair that is talented but still makes its share of mistakes, a second pair that is playing above its ideal spot in the lineup, and a third pair the staff simply doesn’t seem to trust. There is no clear identity to speak of, besides perhaps a power play that — to its credit — ranks third in the NHL.
The roster construction is poor. Steve Yzerman did a bad job. Frankly, this team doesn’t have the star power to overcome these roster flaws. As good as Lucas Raymond is, he’s not a franchise-level talent. He cannot carry the entire offense on his shoulders. He’s a star, but he’s not a superstar. Same with Dylan Larkin. On the blue line, Seider is everything you could hope for out of a defender when it comes to actually playing defense. He’s truly elite at it. Unfortunately, his offense leaves some to be desired. Edvinsson is playing in his first full season, so I won’t say anything about his flaws because they could be growing pains. This is already a great defensive pairing and should only get better, but it’s not one that can or will help carry a team in the way Toews and Makar can in Colorado.
(Even if Larkin, Raymond, Seider, and Edvinsson could carry this team to the playoffs, they would get destroyed in the playoffs and this roster is so flawed, I don’t see a path to any success anytime soon.)
Here’s the thing, I know the rebuttal that’s coming: “The Red Wings had zero lottery luck, you can’t blame lack of star power on Yzerman”. I would disagree. I think you can. Let’s look at the Dallas Stars and players on the roster that they’ve drafted between 2017 and 2021 and are star players or should be soon:
Miro Heiskanen (2017, #3 overall)
Jake Oettinger (2017, #26 overall)
Jason Robertson (2017, #39 overall)
Wyatt Johnston (2021, #23 overall)
Logan Stankoven (2021, #47 overall)
Notice anything? One of them, only one of them, was taken in the top three. One. Miro Heiskanen. All the others were taken in the late first round or second round. They completed a rebuild by getting only one star in the top three. All of their other ones came later. Where is the Red Wings Robertson or Stankoven? Where is that guy taken later in the first round or in a later round who elevates the team? Maybe it’s Buchelnikov, he’s looking rather good right now, but even then, I’m not sure he’s enough. The team still lacks a legit second-line left winger for the future, unless they want to make Alex DeBrincat a Red Wing for the rest of his career (and hope that he finds consistency and ages well). There’s still the question of who will be the top-line center of the future. Most of you know I’ve been on the record since before he was drafted that Nate Danielson has 1C potential. While things are looking promising in Grand Rapids, whether he can be an NHL 1C is still far from determined. Even then, his offense isn’t and will never be to a superstar level. It may get to star level, but not superstar level. If he’s a 1C in the NHL it’s because he’ll be elite defensively while getting about 70 points per season in his prime. Which, I do find quite possible, but let’s be real: it’s not an ideal situation. Anyway, back on track. Buchelnikov is the only player taken outside the first round with any real promise. At one point I thought it would be Cross Hanas and Carter Mazur, but the Hanas ship has likely sailed and Mazur’s inability to stay healthy is making him less likely to pan out. Even then, Mazur and Hanas were never going to be superstars. If they hit their ceiling, it would be second-line players. Buchelnikov is the only one with superstar potential.
The point is that the Stars only got one top-three pick. After that, they found their value, the players to carry the franchise later on in the draft. When you’re not getting lottery luck, you have to find the value later on. The Stars did, but the Red Wings didn’t. At some point, you have to stop blaming the lottery, especially when other teams have shown that it’s possible to rebuild and get star talent without several top-three picks.
Path #2: Soft Rebuild
Now, we come to this: suck hard this year. Embrace it. Hope for a top-three pick, and maybe, just maybe, some long overdue lottery luck and ending up with James Hagens. How do you do this? Keep this coaching staff and sell off Patrick Kane and anyone else who isn’t a part of the long-term future that other teams are interested in. Then, once the season is over, don’t renew Lalonde’s contract, draft your new hopeful superstar, and get a new coach who can motivate players. Honestly, just don’t do much. Don’t go out and aggressively buy. If anything aggressive gets done, it should be to shed some of these mediocre overpaid veterans, whether through trade or buyouts. Then, instead of going out and overpaying for another mediocre veteran, leave it open for one of the kids. Get aggressive in letting the young talented prospects take over.
Ok, now, there is an off-shoot of this path, and that is: instead of prioritizing the kids, once again, prioritize mediocre veterans, and don’t get aggressive in moving them (or you do, but replace them with other mediocre veterans). Frankly, of all the options that I will list here, this is the worst possible outcome in my view. Doubling down on what hasn’t worked will just screw this franchise for a long-time, like Ken Holland. There’s a reason why in rebuilds you’re supposed to prioritize young talented players, not mediocre veterans. It’d be nice for Yzerman to get that memo.
Now, let’s get back on the main path. Yes, it would be painful this season, and next season probably wouldn’t be ideal either. That said, at least next year you won’t be purposefully tanking. It would be a growing pains year as you let the kids figure it out. But, at least Red Wings fans would have the excitement of having a superstar. So, that would dull the pain a bit.
I do want to say before we move on: this is the path I think is most likely to be taken. Whether it's the main path where the front office learns from their mistakes or the off-shoot path, I don't know. I just believe that this is the direction the organization will choose.
Path #3: Aggressive Rebuild
Now things are getting scary and more painful, as things will take longer. This path requires a bit more suffering than the soft rebuild, but not too much. Instead of tanking just this year, tank next year as well, and then aggressively start building back up. Unfortunately, doing this would require trading Larkin and letting him chase a Cup with another team. So, you’d be losing your captain and 1C. That said, now you’d be firmly building around Seider and Raymond, while trying to get them into the playoffs once they’re in their primes, and have some legitimate talent around them. A few more years of suffering, but in my view it feels the more likely to have the best pay-off in the end. I want to make it clear: I am not advocating for this path. I’m just saying, that getting two top-five, potentially top-three picks, to add to Seider and Raymond, is probably the path that would lead to the most success.
Path #4: Start All Over Again
Now we come to the least palatable option: burn it all down. Trade everyone. Fire everyone. This option would require firing Yzerman and bringing in a new management team. Everyone gets traded, likely including both Seider and Raymond and starting the rebuild completely from scratch. Get ready for a few years of blatant tanking and even more years of pain. It’ll be a long time until Detroit sees playoff hockey, probably not until closer to 2030. But, at least the fundamental problems plaguing this roster would be gone. Sure, it brings in the risk of creating new ones and starting a new rebuild, again, but aren’t we Detroit sports fans used to that by now?
I’ll end this article by promoting two things: First, an article by Sean Shapiro over at Shap Shots. In it, he also takes a look at what to do about the Red Wings and addresses some things I haven’t touched but deserve attention:
Second, a thread on Bluesky by Micah McCurdy where uses analytics to figure out what exactly has gone wrong.
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